Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 32.895513 39.006210 45.696400 53.533577 62.430085 72.182415 83.647485
2025-02-02 25.357945 33.868067 44.069067 57.055907 72.995886 91.763007 115.356601
2025-02-09 20.401724 29.916275 42.144042 58.703653 80.203241 106.810456 141.821540
2025-02-16 16.842653 26.797622 40.379882 59.748718 86.073653 119.974049 166.201986
2025-02-23 13.866695 23.823491 38.181575 59.635324 89.999652 130.476219 187.381689
2025-03-02 11.280748 20.901311 35.538652 58.398463 91.993817 138.213503 205.004442
2025-03-09 9.474810 18.842576 33.818177 58.159953 95.148990 147.462317 224.876445
2025-03-16 7.412465 15.959363 30.390050 54.882597 93.447003 149.589857 234.741001
2025-03-23 6.607315 15.135356 30.152037 56.484389 99.054457 162.358149 260.100451
2025-03-30 5.528408 13.591278 28.475589 55.534014 100.554162 169.049707 276.844881
2025-04-06 5.141158 13.338800 29.019194 58.295924 108.041674 184.989607 307.756099
2025-04-13 4.019826 11.329872 26.085423 54.752536 104.990483 184.592072 314.125015
2025-04-20 3.575961 10.797145 26.028961 56.581110 111.447692 200.036197 346.419458
2025-04-27 3.345045 10.731735 26.919853 60.289385 121.467785 221.819492 389.769435
2025-05-04 2.963569 10.202626 26.777424 62.013811 128.122901 238.473090 425.764182
2025-05-11 2.586649 9.585133 26.346242 63.106530 133.682426 253.542494 459.796646
2025-05-18 2.183999 8.780121 25.369858 62.987986 136.991286 264.967397 488.365499
2025-05-25 1.778773 7.835101 23.909242 61.694772 137.981900 272.451532 510.735117
2025-06-01 1.494707 7.171984 23.002992 61.445369 140.872621 283.255195 538.898864
2025-06-08 1.123500 6.059659 20.762682 58.017457 137.322278 282.579656 547.771506
2025-06-15 1.007463 5.837560 20.805202 59.693041 143.923920 300.131610 588.053165
2025-06-22 0.819655 5.250096 19.744479 58.698933 145.053438 307.856801 611.738726
2025-06-29 0.770701 5.235223 20.304057 61.587552 154.305390 330.718468 662.315085